Nonferrous metal enterprise confidence index report

2nd quarter 2018

China nonferrous metal industry association

In the second quarter of 2018, the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence index was 49.8, slightly below the critical point, down 0.7 from the previous period.

Among them, the spot index was 49.8 and the expected index was 49.8, indicating that the confidence of non-ferrous metal enterprises in the operation of the industry has fallen.

FIG. 1 confidence index of non-ferrous metal enterprises from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2018

FIG. 2 spot index and expected index of nonferrous metal enterprises from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2018

Table 1 list of spot index and expected index of nonferrous metal enterprises in the second quarter of 2018

Non-ferrous metals in current business confidence index were composed of 10 single parameter, four indicators (etc) in high point, including the new orders index, the index of production, raw material purchasing quantity and unit price index;

Six indicators below the critical point, including raw material purchase price index, index of workers, enterprise cash flow index, profitability index, the index of the downstream industry needs and enterprise operation environment index.

The specific analysis is shown in the following table and the sub-indicators:

Table 2 list of individual indicators of the confidence index of non-ferrous metal enterprises since the first quarter of 2016

1. New order quantity index

In this period, the new order volume index is 51.4, up 0.2 from the previous period, higher than the critical point, indicating that the industry market demand growth is accelerating.

2. Production capacity index

In this period, the production volume index is 52.1, down 0.1 from the previous period, indicating that the pace of industrial production expansion has slowed down, but it is higher than the critical point.

3. Raw material purchasing volume index

In this period, the raw material purchasing volume index was 51.1, 0.5 lower than the previous period, higher than the critical point.

4. Raw material purchase price index

In this period, the raw material purchasing unit price index is 48, 0.2 lower than the previous period, lower than the critical point.

5. Unit product price index

In this period, the price index of unit product is 50, which is 0.5 lower than the previous period and is equal to the critical point.

6. Employment index

In this period, the number of employees is 49.1, up 0.5 from the previous period, lower than the critical point, indicating that the decline in industrial enterprises' employment has been reduced.

7. Enterprise capital turnover index

In this period, the enterprise capital turnover index was 49.2, down 1.0 from the previous period, below the critical point.

8. Corporate profitability index

In this period, the enterprise profitability index is 48.7, down 1.5 from the previous period, below the critical point.

9. Downstream industrial demand index

In this period, the downstream industrial demand index was 48.7, down 2.7 from the previous period, below the critical point.

10. Enterprise operating environment index

In this period, the enterprise operating environment index is 48.7, down 2.4 from the previous period, below the critical point.

Generally speaking, the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence index is lower than the previous period, and the enterprise confidence in the market is weaker.

However, the new order volume index and production volume index are higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall production situation of the non-ferrous metal industry is stable, medium and good.

At the same time, we should also see that 6 indicators, including the purchase price of raw materials and profit level, are below the critical point.

The reasons are mainly from two aspects. First, the development of non-ferrous metal industry is still restricted by some factors, such as the decline of enterprise profitability and the rise of cost, which deserve our further attention in the future.

Second, recent moves by the us to raise tariffs on Chinese goods exports have raised concerns about expectations as trade frictions between China and the us intensify.

Note:

1, non-ferrous metals business confidence index is a key link in non-ferrous metal enterprise's quarterly summary, the establishment of the statistical index, it is mainly used for judging the non-ferrous metal industry running situation.

The index issues quarterly, with the first quarter covering December, January and February of last year.

The second quarter includes march, April and may;

The third quarter includes June, July and August;

The fourth quarter includes September, October and November.

2, calculation methods: by means of questionnaire on key link enterprise sub-index the required data, for each single parameter computing diffusion index respectively, the percentage of number of enterprises optimistic answer half and answer the same percentage.

Non-ferrous metals business confidence index is a composite index, formed by sight confidence index, expected confidence index respectively, the two index weighted by 10 single index, single index and its weights is determined on the basis of its leading economic impact degree.

3, 10 single parameter involved in the new orders index and its weights are respectively (15%), production (10%), raw materials procurement, index (5%), raw material purchase price index (10%), unit price (15%), workers (5%), the enterprise capital turnover index (10%), enterprise profitability index (15%), the downstream industry demand (7%), enterprise management environment index (8%).

東莞杰夫 三氧化二銻